LeBrun: Stanley Cup Final predictions — surveying NHL coaches, execs on Oilers vs. Panthers (2024)

Am I surprised most people are picking the Florida Panthers to beat the Edmonton Oilers in the Stanley Cup Final?

No. They’re favored, after all.

But I am surprised for sure that my survey of NHL head coaches and front-office executives was as lopsided toward the Panthers as it was. In all, I heard back from 17 head coaches and 16 team executives. Out of those 33 responses, only four had the Oilers winning the Cup.

Here are their responses, all via text message this week.

(Note: Some responses are edited lightly for clarity.)

Head coach No. 1

I’ve got the Panthers in seven.

Florida’s willingness and effectiveness on the forecheck will constantly apply pressure to Edmonton’s D, forcing mistakes.

The other thing that I’ll be watching for is Florida defending Edmonton’s rush game. Florida is much more aggressive with D gaps in the neutral zone than Dallas. They do such a good job of limiting your space in the neutral zone and don’t let you have clean entries. You either have to be willing to dump pucks in and forecheck consistently or they will turn you over and transition the other way.

X-factors in the series:

• Stuart Skinner. Igor Shesterkin was phenomenal against the Panthers. Can Skinner perform close to that level?

• How the games are officiated will be huge. Are we looking at a series with two power plays per game for each team or five?

If it’s the latter, Edmonton can obviously excel.

Head coach No. 2

Very excited about this series. I think it’s a mismatch. We played Florida before the trade deadline, and I knew it was the best team in the league, with some separation on other top contenders.

Championship-caliber center depth. Best in the league with Aleksander Barkov, Sam Bennett and Anton Lundell. All heavier-type centers, too, which is made for playoffs. They also have got that “swagger” level. No situation rattles them. They expect to win now. Add in the solid D core and Sergei Bobrovsky being back to top echelon and this is a wagon.

You can never count out Edmonton with two of the best players in the world. Skinner could definitely get lightning in a bottle. I didn’t have Edmonton beating Dallas, so there you go.

I see Florida winning this series in similar fashion to how they beat the Rangers. Wasn’t a blowout, and the Rangers definitely had their chances, but you could see all along Florida was a class ahead of New York. Like any competitive coach … I will be jealous it’s someone else in the end.

But I am rooting for Florida because they nailed the roster. Gustav Forsling off waivers, got Carter Verhaeghe for nothing. Bennett and Tkachuk trades. Along with the home-grown pieces. Built a wagon. Have to tip your hat.

Head coach No. 3

Panthers in six.

Better depth.

Have the ability to check Edmonton’s top guys and create havoc on Edmonton’s breakouts.

Went through the long layoff before the Final last season and will be better prepared to handle that this time around.

In a nutshell, they’re just a more mature team this playoff season.

Head coach No. 4

Gotta go with Florida. Deep, physical, skilled, as well. Their physical depth will help contain McDavid and Draisaitl. They’ve been there before, as well, which will help. Plus they have the edge in goaltending.

Head coach No. 5

Florida. Bigger, stronger, faster, deeper. They check all the boxes.

Head coach No. 6

I have Florida. I think forward depth will be the difference. Although, I had Dallas against Edmonton and thought forward depth would be the difference! Also, with Florida’s experience losing last year, they have more of an edge this year.

Head coach No. 7

Florida, due to its ability to wear a team down over the course of a series. They make you earn every foot of ice and especially in your own end. Very hard on the defensem*n, centers and a goalie over time.

Look at their offensive-zone time possession numbers versus opponents.

Florida does give up odd-man rushes, and the Oilers can finish off the rush really well.

Head coach No. 8

I think this will be a terrific series. Both teams have high-end skill and depth, but I think I will give the nod to Florida. They are playing a great team game right now, they do not give up much at all, and they have the ability to play any style (i.e. nasty when needed). I also think last year’s experience in the Final will serve them well.

Head coach No. 9

Well, your guess is as good as mine, but I was really impressed with the Oilers in the Dallas series. If they can play like that, they are going to give themselves a chance. Especially if Florida isn’t extremely disciplined. That being said, I think the Panthers get it done. They are relentless and physical through four lines. I think they’ll be able to wear down the Oilers and spend enough time in their zone to keep chipping away at scoring chances. I also think with home ice and the better goalie they have the edge.

Head coach No. 10

I think Florida will win. They are deep, hard to play against and last year’s experience will help. Also, I think they have the penalty kill, goaltending and players that can match up against Edmonton’s top players. Florida is hard to win a series against because they just pound you physically and it seems like teams wear down as series go on.

Head coach No. 11

Panthers in six games.

Florida’s depth and willingness to play physical every game will wear down Edmonton’s defense. Plus they are really good at getting numbers to the net.

Discipline is a key to the Panthers’ success, though. Can’t give Edmonton four or five power plays a game.

I think the more physical team wins.

Head coach No. 12

Florida in six.

• Big physical team that doesn’t stop coming at you throughout a series.

• Shot volume team that puts extended pressure on your goalie and defensive-zone time.

• Lessons learned from last year’s loss.

(On Edmonton’s side is their PP, which terrifies every PK coach out there. It was the difference in the last few games against Dallas. Plus they have McDavid.)

Head coach No. 13

Florida. Balanced attack. Strong defense. Solid goaltending. And very good special teams.

Head coach No. 14

Panthers. The pace that Florida plays at and the depth they have throughout the lineup will cause problems in a long series. Consistent goaltending favors Florida.

Head coach No. 15

Florida. They will bully Edmonton. They are hard and they’ve been there.

It will be a very good Stanley Cup Final.

Florida’s PK is real good. They will be a challenge.

Head coach No. 16

Florida. Depth and new-found discipline! They can’t let Edmonton on the power play like they did with the Rangers, though — 15 penalties in 6 games, that’s pretty good.

Head coach No. 17

I think Edmonton will win. It’s time. McDavid looks unstoppable. Their PK is excellent and the goalie is getting better.

Team exec No. 1

Edmonton in seven games.

I really like Florida. No surprise they are back in the Final. No major weaknesses. An excellent “team.”

I just can’t bet against McDavid. The Oilers have a feel similar to the 2016 Penguins when Sullivan took over midseason.

Team exec No. 2

Florida in six. Their blend of heaviness and skill will be hard to overcome, and they’re tested. Going through the run last season will have them better prepared.

Matthew Tkachuk and Barkov are a great complement to each other. Edmonton has the best player in the world, though, and one who isn’t too far off, so I’m not 100 percent comfortable in my prediction. McDavid and Draisaitl are hard to pick against. Zach Hyman and Sam Reinhart is an awesome secondary storyline with the parallels of being 50-goal scorers while the big dogs get most of the credit.

Bobrovsky has the edge over Skinner, and their D corps are fairly close. I also don’t think Edmonton’s PK can keep killing every single penalty, but that’s been impressive.

Great matchup overall. But I give the edge to Florida because of experience and the goaltending.

Team exec No. 3

Tough call to make. I will go with Florida because of the goaltending and Barkov, who I believe can make a difference versus the two-headed monsters. But still … tough call.

Team exec No. 4

Florida. It has the edge at five-on-five, in forward depth, the D-corps and goaltending.

Obviously, special teams goes to Edmonton. Florida will have to be more careful with penalty minutes.

Team exec No. 5

Florida.

Best balanced team. Able to play any type of game. They have more skill than they let on and are more than willing to do whatever is required at the time, including crossing the line.

And they have the goalie, which is different from getting good goaltending.

Team exec No. 6

Florida. I think they win convincingly. They have proven all season long they can beat you any way, and right now they are on top of their game. This is a good matchup for them too. To top it off, they will have learned a lot from making it this far last year and will be ready to finish the job this year.

Team exec No. 7

This will be a fast-paced, up-tempo series with a tremendous amount of star power on both sides. Each team has the individual components that typify Stanley Cup champions: superlative skill up front, grinding physical depth forwards, dynamic defensem*n and mercurial goaltending.

It’s going to be an extremely hard-fought series that will go to six or seven games.

In the end, I believe Florida will prevail. They were there last year and learned that you have to learn to lose before you learn to win. It’s their time now …

Team exec No. 8

Florida in 6. The Panthers’ overall physicality will push them over the Oilers. The edge goes to Florida in goaltending, as well. Florida’s forwards will wear down Edmonton’s defense and will capitalize on the turnovers.

Team exec No. 9

Wow. Like always, two great teams. Both with impressive series wins over the past six weeks. Love Florida. Plays nasty, checks, and scores timely goals. Can play it any way. Has all that plus arguably the best goalie in the business.

But I’m picking Edmonton in a long series. The PK is unreal, and the PP, well, everyone knows about that. Bringing guys in and out of the lineup. Checking with speed. Lots going their way right now.

And McDavid.

Team exec No. 10

Florida, based on experience from last year and overall lineup balance and competitiveness.

Team exec No. 11

Florida.

Too deep. Too heavy. Great goaltending, and they get depth scoring.

But with that said. two words give the Oil a chance:

Connor McDavid.

But Florida in six is my call.

Team exec No. 12

My head wants me to say Florida … and they will be tough to beat, but McDavid looks like he will not be denied! Oilers in six.

Team exec No. 13

Florida because of its depth at every position and attention to detail.

Team exec No. 14

Florida in seven.

Home ice. Physical style — Dallas was not physical at all. And goaltending.

Team exec No. 15

I’m going to say Florida in six. I have been very impressed with the Panthers’ ability to completely commit to their identity and team game on a nightly basis, seemingly regardless of the score. I think their depth up front and their ability to hang on to pucks and wear teams down, particularly an opponent’s defense corps, will ultimately be the difference. Moreover, I think they have an advantage in net, though obviously Skinner has played well since coming back in for Edmonton.

I give the Oilers full credit for the run they’ve put together and wouldn’t be surprised at all if McDavid, Draisaitl and Co., were able to push through, but to me Florida has the edge coming into the series.

Team exec No. 16

Florida in six games. Too much depth and more predictable goaltending (which can change from game to game), and they were there last year …

But, if Evander Kane can play and is anywhere near his level, that can cause problems for Florida, especially for Matthew Tkachuk, as we have seen with the Edmonton and Calgary rivalry.

Bob has been excellent, but like any goalie now, he can throw a stinker out there, as Skinner does — but Skinner’s last game was the best of his life, and if he can throw that out there the next two weeks …

Yet this should be one of the most compelling Finals, just because McDavid represents everything that makes winning the Cup so good. It doesn’t happen quickly for most, and that’s why it’s hard and the hardest trophy to win.

(Graphic: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic, with photos from John McCreary, Jared Silber and Josh Lavallee / Getty Images)